Movie Revolt’s 2012 Oscar Predictions

With the Oscars less than a week a way I thought I would give my predictions on who will be walking away with the award. Just so we are clear this isn’t who I think should win, rather who will win. Feel free to let me know how wrong you think I am.

Best PictureNominees:

-“The Artist”
-“The Descendents”
-“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”
-“The Help”
-“Hugo”
-“Midnight in Paris”
-“The Tree of Life”
-“War Horse”

My Pick:

“The Artist”

Possible Upset:

“The Descendents”, “The Help”

Reasoning:

“The Artist” has everything going for it right now. It’s won the majority of the Guild awards, as well as a lot of critical awards.  Both “The Descendents” and “The Help” are actors movies so there is a possibility for a big upset. One thing to keep in mind is that actors make up the majority of the Academy, but even with that fact I don’t see “The Artist” losing.

Best Actor Nominees:

-Demian Bichir, “A Better Life’
-George Clooney, “The Descendents”
-Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”
-Gary Oldman, “Tinker Tailor Solider Spy”
-Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”

My Pick:

Jean Dujardin

Possible Upset:

George Clooney

Reasoning:

Figure it’ll be a big year for “The Artist”. Clooney was the early favorite, but Dujardin has momentum on his side.

Best Supporting Actor Nominees:

-Kenneth Branagh, “My Week with Marilyn”
-Jonah Hill, “Moneyball”
-Nick Nolte, “Warrior”
-Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
-Max von Sydow, “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”

My Pick:

Christopher Plummer

Possible Upset:

None

Reasoning:

 At this time it’s pretty much a lock that Plummer will win. For one its deserved, add in the fact Plummer is hugely respected and hasn’t won an Oscar before and he is a shoe in.

Best Actress Nominees:

-Glen Glose, “Albert Nobbs”
-Viola Davis, “The Help”
-Rooney Mara, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
-Maryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”
-Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn”

My Pick:

Viola Davis

Possible Upset:

Maryl Streep

Reasoning:

It’s a two women race and I’m going with Viola Davis. Davis has been taking home most of the Guild Awards, plus it seems Streep’s  record success has been working against to her as of late.

Best Supporting Actress Nominees:

-Berenice Bejo, “The Artist”
-Jessica Chastain, “The Help”
-Melissa McGarthy, “Bridesmaids”
-Janet McTeer, “Albert Nobbs”
-Octavia Spencer, “The Help”

My Pick:

Octavia Spencer

Possible Upset:

Melissa McGarthy

Reasoning:

This is also pretty much a lock, but there have been upsets in this category before. The only thing I could see happening is a Marisa Tomei, “My Cousin Vinny” like upset occurring with Melisa McGarthy shocking the world.

Best Animated Film Nominees:

-“A Cat in Paris”
-“Chico & Rita”
-“Kung Fu Panda 2”
-“Puss In Boots:
-“Rango”

My Pick:

“Rango”

Possible Upset:

“Chico & Rita”

Reasoning:

The last few years this has been the easiest cateorgy to pick. Just pick the one animated film that is also nominated for Best Picture or A.K.A. pick the Pixar film. This year Pixar’s not even nominated. I’m going with “Rango” based on the fact it has received the most commercial and critical acclaim.

Best Art Direction:

-“The Artist”
-“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2”
-“Hugo”
-“Midnight in Paris”
-“War Horse”

My Pick:

“The Artist”

Possible Upset:

“Hugo”

Reasoning:

This was honestly one of the hardest awards to pick. I could come up with reasoning for every nominee to win, but in the end I went with “The Artist”. I figured its going to be a big night for the film so my motto is: When in doubt go with “The Artist”.

Best Cinematography:

-“The Artist”
-“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
-“Hugo”
-“The Tree of Life”
-“War Horse”

My Pick:

“Hugo”

Possible Upset:

“Tree of Life”

Reasoning:

The mixture of old technology with new 3D helped Hugo stand out.

Best Costume Design:

-“Annoymous”
-“The Artist”
-“Hugo”
-“Jane Eyre”
-“W.E.”

My Pick:

“Jane Eyre”

Possible Upset:

“Hugo”, “The Artist”

Reasoning:

When it comes to costume design never consider the quality of the film. Last year “Alice in Wonderland” won this award, and that film was universally panned. Usually your best bet is to pick the British period piece, but this year there are a few of those nominated. Through research it seems the smart money is on “Jane Eyre”.

Best Director:

-Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
-Alexander Payne, “The Descendents”
-Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”
-Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”
-Terrence Malick, “The Tree of Life”

My Pick:

Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”

Possible Upset:

Alexander Payne, “The Descendents”

Reasoning:

It’s pretty simple, were goes Best Picture goes Best Director.

Best Documentary (Feature):

-“Hell and Back Again”
-“If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front”
-“Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory”
-“Pina”
-“Undefeated”

My Pick:

“Undefeated”

Possible Upset:

“Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory:

Reasoning:

Usually with the docs caterogry the best bet is on the political film. The reason I’m going with “Undefeated” is it has the power of the Weinstein company behind it, and they can campaign for films like no other.

Best Documentary (Short Subject):

-“The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Solider of the Civil Rights Movement”
-“God is the Bigger Elvis”
-“Incident in New Baghdad”
-“Saving Face”
-“The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom”

My Pick:

“Incident in New Baghdad”

Possible Upset:

“The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Solider of the Civil Rights Movement”

Reasoning:

Like I mentioned in the Feature category, the best money is on the film that focuses on political or current news events.

Best Film Editing:

-“The Artist”
-“The Decendents”
-“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
-“Hugo”
-“Moneyball”

My Pick:

“The Artist”

Possible Upset:

“Hugo”

Reasoning:

Goes back to my motto this year, but also the use of the silent film format made the editing of the film quite important.

Best Foreign Language Film:

-“Bullhead”,  Belgium
-“Footnote”, Israel
-“In Darkness”, Poland
-“Monsieur Lashar”, Canada
-“A Separation”, Iran

My Pick:

“A Separation”

Possible Upset:

None

Reasoning:

Considering the subject matter, critical acclaim, and the current world climate this is one of the biggest locks of the night.

Best Makeup:

-“Albert Nobbs”
-“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part Two”
-“The Iron Lady”

My Pick:

“Albert Nobbs”

Possible Upset:

“The Iron Lady”

Reasoning:

Making Glen Close look like a man seems like a good bet to win best makeup.

Best Music (Original Score)

-“The Adventure of TinTin
-“The Artist”
-“Hugo”
-“Tinker Tailor Solider Spy”
-“War Horse”

My Pick:

“The Artist”

Possible Upset:

“Hugo”

 Reasoning:

Like Meryl Streep, John Williams is a victim of his own success. The fact that he’s nominated for two films almost guarantees he won’t win. In the end it has the be “The Artist”. Being a silent film the score is what help sells the story.

Best Music (Original Song):

-“Man or Muppet”, The Muppets
-“Real in Rio”, Rio

My Pick:

“Man or Muppet”

Possible Upset: umm..ummm…can’t think of one

Reasoning:

It’s the Muppets against a animated film that wasn’t even nominated for Best Animated Film.  Seems like a lock.

Best Short Film:

-“Dimanche/Sunday”
-“The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore”
-“La Luna”
-“A Morning Stroll”
-“Wild Life”

My Pick:

“Luna Luna”

Possible Upset:

Anything really.

Reasoning:

The short film awards are where ballots are won and lost. I’d be lying if I said this was more than a shot in the dark, but based on my research it seems the smart money is on “La Luna”.

Best Short Film (Live Action):

-“Pentecost”
-“Raju”
-“The Shore”
-“Time Freak”
-“Tuba Atlantic”

My Pick:

Raju

Reasoning:

Again just based on what I’m reading.

Best Sound Editing:

-“Drive”
-“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
-“Hugo”
-“Transformers: Dark of the Moon”
-“War Horse”

My Pick:

“War Horse”

Possible Upset:

“Hugo”

Reasoning:

With the sound awards it is often said, “The Loudest Movie Wins”. While “War Horse” isn’t the loudest movie per say, it is a war movie. If a war film is in this category it almost always wins.

Best Sound Mixing:

-“The Girl with the Dragoon Tattoo”
-“Hugo”
-“Moneyball”
-“Transformers: Dark of the Moon”
-“War Horse”

My Pick:

“Hugo”

Possible Upset:

“War Horse”

Reasoning:

The initial thought is to pick the same film for both Sound awards, however very rarely does the same movie win both.  Often sound mixing will be won by the film with the biggest mixture of sound, and that movie would most likely be “Hugo”.

Best Visual Effects:

-“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part Two”
-“Hugo”
-“Real Steel”
-“Rise of the Planet of the Apes”
-“Transformers: Dark of the Moon”

My Pick:

“Rise of the Planet of the Apes”

Possible Upset:

“Hugo”

Reasoning:

“Rise of the Planet of the Apes” special effects are a big part of what sells the film. It’s almost a consolation prize for Andy Serkis not getting a Best Actor nomination.

 
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay):

-“The Descendents”
-“Hugo”
-“The Ides of March”
-“Moneyball”
-“Tinker Tailor Solider Spy”

My Pick:

“The Descendents”

Possible Upset:

“Moneyball”

Reasoning:

I don’t see “The Descendents” walking away with no awards, and this seems like its best shot.

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)

-“The Artist”
-“Bridesmaids”
-Margin Call”
-“Midnight in Paris”
-“A Seperation”

My Pick:

“The Artist”

Possible Upset:

“Midnight in Paris”

Reasoning:

It’s a two movie race for this category.  More often then not if the Best Picture winner is nominated in a writing category it wins. I see that trend continuing here.